01 Context
Short-Term Holder Realized Price estimates the average on-chain cost basis of bitcoin associated with the market’s more recently active supply. Glassnode’s standard cohort definition covers coins held outside exchange reserves that moved within the last 155 days. The metric can help frame whether this cohort is, on average, carrying unrealized profit or loss.
The label requires care. Realized Price does not observe each investor’s actual purchase price. It values coins at the market price when they last moved on-chain. The result is an analytical proxy built from blockchain activity, not a complete ledger of who bought what and where.
02 Why it matters
Recently moved coins are often treated as the portion of supply most responsive to current market conditions. Comparing spot price with this cohort’s estimated cost basis can provide context on whether newer or recently active holders are collectively above or below their last-movement valuation.
That comparison may help explain why a price area attracts attention, but it does not turn the metric into mechanical support or resistance. Market liquidity, derivatives positioning, ETF demand, macro conditions and the distribution of individual cost bases can all matter more than one aggregate line.
What It Measures
Realized capitalization values each coin at the price prevailing when it last moved on-chain rather than at today’s market price. Realized Price converts that aggregate value into an average for the relevant supply. Short-Term Holder Realized Price applies the same framework to the short-term-holder cohort.
Glassnode defines that cohort as coins outside exchange reserves that moved within the previous 155 days. The figure is frequently described as the cohort’s cost basis, but estimated on-chain cost basis is more precise: the last transfer price may differ from the price paid by the beneficial owner.
How It Works
The calculation assigns eligible coins to a cohort according to the age of their most recent on-chain movement. It then uses the realized value of that cohort to estimate an average realized price. Glassnode also expresses the relationship through cohort MVRV: Short-Term Holder Realized Price equals spot price divided by Short-Term Holder MVRV.
The 155-day boundary is a heuristic, not a legal or economic definition of a short-term investor. A coin can move from the short-term to the long-term cohort simply by aging beyond the threshold. A long-dormant coin that moves again can re-enter the short-term cohort at a new realized valuation.
How To Interpret It
When spot price is above Short-Term Holder Realized Price, the cohort is in aggregate unrealized profit under the model. When spot trades below it, the cohort is in aggregate unrealized loss. This describes the relationship between two calculated values; it does not reveal whether holders intend to sell.
The direction of the cost-basis line can add context. A rising estimate may reflect more supply being repriced at higher market levels, while a declining estimate may reflect coins being repriced lower or changes in cohort composition. Neither movement identifies a market turning point on its own.
Limitations
On-chain data cannot observe trades that occur entirely inside a centralized exchange. It can also mistake a transfer between wallets controlled by the same owner for economically meaningful activity unless an analytics provider’s entity-adjustment methods identify it. Exchange-reserve filters and entity heuristics can differ between providers.
An average compresses a broad distribution into one number. Some recent holders may have much higher or lower cost bases than the cohort estimate. The metric also omits leverage, hedges and investor intent. It is best treated as a map of recent on-chain valuation—not a forecast or standalone trading signal.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price is most useful as a reference point for the estimated on-chain cost basis of recently active supply. Its relationship with spot can describe aggregate unrealized profit or loss, but it cannot confirm support, resistance or future price direction.
04 What to watch
Track the relationship over time rather than treating a single crossing as a complete market signal.
A sustained rise or fall can reflect repricing of recently active supply, but cohort changes need context.
Compare the metric with realized losses, market liquidity, ETF flows and derivatives positioning before drawing conclusions.