All analyses.
Bitcoin, macro and markets — newest first.
- Daily SignalsMACRO
Reserve Risk Relates Price to Conviction
This week review explains how Reserve Risk compares Bitcoin’s price with an inferred HODL Bank rather than providing a live market signal.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Breakevens Frame Next Week’s Rate Debate
Bitcoin is holding near $85,000 as next week’s rate debate turns to inflation compensation, Treasury demand, and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Breakeven Inflation, Explained
A macro explainer on how breakeven inflation compares matched-maturity Treasury and TIPS yields and why the measure requires careful interpretation.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedBITCOIN
RHODL Ratio Explained
An explainer on how RHODL compares realized value across young and older Bitcoin coin-age bands, and why it requires careful interpretation.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Breakevens Frame Next Week’s Macro Watch
Bitcoin is absorbing higher yields as Treasury supply, economic data, and inflation compensation shape the week ahead.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
How Breakevens Frame Inflation Signals
The Fed’s higher projected rate path puts inflation compensation in focus, but no current breakeven reading is available in the supplied data.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
Breakeven Inflation Adds Macro Context
Bitcoin is trading defensively ahead of the Federal Reserve decision while breakeven inflation provides a framework for interpreting nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
The CLARITY Vote Meets a 5% Treasury Market
Regulatory progress could lower Bitcoin's institutional risk premium, but a near-certain Fed hike and a 5% Treasury yield are tightening the real economy.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedBITCOIN
SOPR Explained: Spending Versus Creation
An explainer on how SOPR compares Bitcoin output value when spent with its value when created, and why the measure requires context.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsBITCOIN
Realized Price: Bitcoin’s On-Chain Cost Basis
This explainer shows how realized price estimates Bitcoin’s aggregate on-chain cost basis and why it should be treated as contextual evidence rather than a standalone market signal.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
Realized Price Frames Bitcoin Cost Basis
Realized price provides an on-chain framework for studying Bitcoin’s aggregate historical cost basis, but no live reading is available in this review.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
The Oil Shock Is Forcing a Global Rate Reset
Oil above $100 is colliding with sticky inflation, rising Treasury yields, election-year fiscal pressure and synchronized Fed and BOJ decisions.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsBITCOIN
Bitcoin Realized Price Needs Context
Realized price is an on-chain cost-basis estimate that requires careful separation from Bitcoin’s spot market and this week’s macro developments.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Market StructureMACRO
ETF Volume Is Not ETF Flow
This explainer separates secondary-market ETF trading from fund creations and redemptions amid a renewed inflation and duration shock.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
DXY And Bitcoin: A Macro Explainer
This explainer shows what the U.S. Dollar Index measures, how its basket is calculated, and why its relationship with Bitcoin remains indirect and unstable.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Bitcoin Holds Amid Elevated Rates
Bitcoin is near $79,000 as persistent institutional demand meets elevated Treasury yields ahead of the September Federal Reserve decision.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedBITCOIN
Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Explained
How Short-Term Holder Realized Price estimates the on-chain cost basis of recently moved bitcoin—and where that estimate can mislead.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Dollar Strength And Bitcoin Next Week
Bitcoin remains relatively resilient as next week’s inflation data test renewed rate pressure.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsBITCOIN
RSI: A Momentum Explainer
The Relative Strength Index is a bounded momentum measure that compares recent upward and downward price movements without functioning as a standalone trading signal.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedMACRO
Puell Multiple: Miner-Cycle Context
The Puell Multiple helps frame changes in Bitcoin issuance economics, but no live reading is validated for this review.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Bitcoin Rises as the Dollar and Yields Retreat
Bitcoin’s rebound, a stronger yen and lower Treasury yields point to a short-term easing in financial conditions—but the structural bond-market problem has not disappeared.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedBITCOIN
NUPL: Bitcoin’s Unrealized Profit and Loss
A practical guide to NUPL, its realized-cap foundation, its limits, and how to use it as context rather than a standalone market signal.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
The Global Bond Market Is Repricing
US Treasuries, Japanese government bonds, UK gilts and German Bunds are selling off for different reasons, but the common result is a higher global cost of capital.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedMACRO
Real Yields And Bitcoin’s Opportunity Cost
How nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields differ—and why real yields influence the hurdle rate for holding Bitcoin.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
The Dollar Squeeze Hits Bond Markets
The Dollar Milkshake framework helps explain why a stronger dollar, changing Japanese capital flows and sovereign-bond stress can pressure Bitcoin before supporting its longer-term monetary case.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedBITCOIN
MVRV Z-Score Explained
How MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market and realized capitalization—and why it should be used as valuation context rather than a timing signal.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Bitcoin Advances Despite Firmer Macro
Bitcoin is rising despite a stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields, and softer traditional risk assets.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesBITCOIN
How The Bitcoin Signal Reads Markets
A practical framework for separating durable market information from short-term noise.
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