Liquidity.
Bitcoin, macro and markets — newest first.
- Daily SignalsMACRO
Reserve Risk Relates Price to Conviction
This week review explains how Reserve Risk compares Bitcoin’s price with an inferred HODL Bank rather than providing a live market signal.
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Breakevens Frame Next Week’s Rate Debate
Bitcoin is holding near $85,000 as next week’s rate debate turns to inflation compensation, Treasury demand, and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Breakeven Inflation, Explained
A macro explainer on how breakeven inflation compares matched-maturity Treasury and TIPS yields and why the measure requires careful interpretation.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Breakevens Frame Next Week’s Macro Watch
Bitcoin is absorbing higher yields as Treasury supply, economic data, and inflation compensation shape the week ahead.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
Breakeven Inflation Adds Macro Context
Bitcoin is trading defensively ahead of the Federal Reserve decision while breakeven inflation provides a framework for interpreting nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedBITCOIN
SOPR Explained: Spending Versus Creation
An explainer on how SOPR compares Bitcoin output value when spent with its value when created, and why the measure requires context.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsBITCOIN
Realized Price: Bitcoin’s On-Chain Cost Basis
This explainer shows how realized price estimates Bitcoin’s aggregate on-chain cost basis and why it should be treated as contextual evidence rather than a standalone market signal.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
The Oil Shock Is Forcing a Global Rate Reset
Oil above $100 is colliding with sticky inflation, rising Treasury yields, election-year fiscal pressure and synchronized Fed and BOJ decisions.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
DXY And Bitcoin: A Macro Explainer
This explainer shows what the U.S. Dollar Index measures, how its basket is calculated, and why its relationship with Bitcoin remains indirect and unstable.
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Dollar Strength And Bitcoin Next Week
Bitcoin remains relatively resilient as next week’s inflation data test renewed rate pressure.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedMACRO
Puell Multiple: Miner-Cycle Context
The Puell Multiple helps frame changes in Bitcoin issuance economics, but no live reading is validated for this review.
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Bitcoin Rises as the Dollar and Yields Retreat
Bitcoin’s rebound, a stronger yen and lower Treasury yields point to a short-term easing in financial conditions—but the structural bond-market problem has not disappeared.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedBITCOIN
NUPL: Bitcoin’s Unrealized Profit and Loss
A practical guide to NUPL, its realized-cap foundation, its limits, and how to use it as context rather than a standalone market signal.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
The Global Bond Market Is Repricing
US Treasuries, Japanese government bonds, UK gilts and German Bunds are selling off for different reasons, but the common result is a higher global cost of capital.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Metrics ExplainedMACRO
Real Yields And Bitcoin’s Opportunity Cost
How nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields differ—and why real yields influence the hurdle rate for holding Bitcoin.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesMACRO
The Dollar Squeeze Hits Bond Markets
The Dollar Milkshake framework helps explain why a stronger dollar, changing Japanese capital flows and sovereign-bond stress can pressure Bitcoin before supporting its longer-term monetary case.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Daily SignalsMACRO
Bitcoin Advances Despite Firmer Macro
Bitcoin is rising despite a stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields, and softer traditional risk assets.
READ THE ANALYSIS → - Deep DivesBITCOIN
How The Bitcoin Signal Reads Markets
A practical framework for separating durable market information from short-term noise.
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